The Counter-deception Blog

Call for Research Participants

Are you interested in global security and politics, business and economics, public health, science and technology,

or social and cultural change? If so, we invite you to participate in a unique, online research study sponsored by

the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The Forecasting World Events Project is part of a

federally funded research program investigating the accuracy of individual and group predictions about global

events and trends, leading to fundamental advances in the science of forecasting. To support this research, the

Project seeks to build a diverse panel of forecasters with interests in any of the above domains. As a participant,

you will offer predictions about the questions that interest you most, update those forecasts as often as you like,

and interact with your fellow forecasters via optional discussion boards.

Who can participate? Any U.S. citizen 18 years or older may register to participate. People of all backgrounds are

welcome to register; advanced degree-holders and graduate students are particularly encouraged to participate.

When does it start? Invited participants will begin making predictions in late spring 2011.

What are the questions like? We will provide all of the forecasting questions, which will cover a range of global

events and will typically ask you to indicate the likelihood of something happening (e.g., a candidate winning an

election), a future amount or level of something (e.g., level of unemployment), or the date of an event (e.g., the

month and year of a company’s next product release).

Is there a heavy time commitment? Absolutely not. If selected to join the study, you will decide how often you

visit the forecasting website, the number of questions you want to answer, and the frequency with which you update

your forecasts. Furthermore, you may vary your level of involvement over time, completely at your discretion.

How long will the study last? The Project is scheduled to run from 2011 through 2013. If selected to participate,

you are encouraged to participate throughout this period, though you may withdraw at any time.

What’s the next step? Registration is now open at www.forecastwe.org. Following notification, selected participants

will begin offering their predictions via an interactive forecasting website.

Test your insight and advance the science of prediction. www.forecastwe.org

Sponsored by IARPA’s ACE Program www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_ace.html, the Forecasting World Events Project is managed by The MITRE Corporation,

a not-for-profit manager of Federally Funded Research and Development Centers.