The Counter-deception Blog

The tactic of making a strong speculative assertion was used repeatedly to make the case for WMD in Iraq: e.g., "Iraq might have as much as 60 tons of VX nerve agent." The hawks have repeatedly made such speculative assertions to imply the WMD were moved out of Iraq. This report says it isn't so, and never was.

US Intelligence: No Evidence WMDs Were Moved Out Of Iraq
Dow Jones Newswires January 18, 2004

As the hunt for WMD dragged on unsuccessfully in Iraq, top Bush administration officials speculated publicly that the banned armaments may have been smuggled out of the country before the war started. Whether Saddam Hussein moved the WMD -deadly chemical, biological or radiological arms -is one of the unresolved issues that the final U.S. intelligence report on Iraq's programs is expected to address next month.

But intelligence and congressional officials say they have not seen any information -never "a piece," said one -indicating that WMD or significant amounts of components and equipment were transferred from Iraq to neighboring Syria, Jordan or elsewhere.

The administration acknowledged last week that the search for banned weapons
is largely over. The Iraq Survey Group's chief, Charles Duelfer, is expected
to submit the final installments of his report in February. A small number
of the organization's experts will remain on the job in case new
intelligence on Iraqi WMD is unearthed.

But the officials familiar with the search say U.S. authorities have found
no evidence that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein transferred WMD or
related equipment out of Iraq.

A special adviser to the CIA director, Duelfer declined an interview request
through an agency spokesman. In his last public statements, he told a Senate
panel last October that it remained unclear whether banned weapons could
have been moved from Iraq.

"What I can tell you is that I believe we know a lot of materials left Iraq
and went to Syria. There was certainly a lot of traffic across the border
points," he said. "But whether in fact in any of these trucks there was
WMD-related materials, I cannot say."

Last week, a congressional official, speaking on condition of anonymity,
said suggestions that weapons or components were sent from Iraq were based
on speculation stemming from uncorroborated information.

President Bush and top-ranking officials in his administration used the
existence of WMD in Iraq as the main justification for the March 2003
invasion, and throughout much of last year the White House continued to
raise the possibility the weapons were transferred to another country.

For instance:

--Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said in early October he believed
Saddam had WMD before the war. "He has either hidden them so well or moved
them somewhere else, or decided to destroy them ... in event of a conflict
but kept the capability of developing them rapidly," Rumsfeld said in a Fox
News Channel interview.

Eight months earlier, he told senators "it's possible that WMD did exist,
but was transferred, in whole or in part, to one or more other countries. We
see that theory put forward."

--Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed concern the WMD would be found.
However, when asked in September if the WMD could have been hidden or moved
to a country like Syria, he said, "I can't exclude any of those
possibilities."

--And, on MSNBC's "Hardball" in June, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul
Wolfowitz said: "Everyone believed that his programs were more active than
they appeared to be, but recognize, he had a lot of time to move stuff, a
lot of time to hide stuff."

Since the October report from Duelfer, which said Saddam intended to obtain
WMD but had no banned weapons, senior administration leaders have largely
stopped discussing whether the weapons were moved.

Last week, the intelligence and congressional officials said evidence
indicating somewhat common equipment with dual military and civilian uses,
such as fermenters, was salvaged during post-invasion looting and sold for
scrap in other countries. Syria was mentioned as one location.

However, the U.S. intelligence community's 2002 estimate on Iraq indicated
there were sizable weapons programs and stockpiles. The officials said
weapons experts have not found a production capability in Iraq that would
back up the size of the prewar estimates.

Among a series of key findings, that estimate said Iraq "has largely rebuilt
missile and biological weapons facilities damaged" during a 1998
U.S.-British bombing campaign and "has expanded its chemical and biological
infrastructure under the cover of civilian production."

Although the U.S. had little specific information, the estimate also said
Saddam probably stockpiled at least 100 metric tons, possibly 500 metric
tons, of chemical weapons agents -"much of it added in the last year."